Bitcoin Eyes $3.8K After High-Volume Price Breakout

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  • Bitcoin gained 7.8 percent on Friday, confirming a falling wedge breakout on the daily chart. The bearish-to-bullish trend change was backed by a jump in trading volumes to levels last seen in mid-November.
  • Prices could soon cross the 50-day moving average resistance at $3,642 and test resistance levels lined up at $3,800 and $4,000 in the next few days.
  • A break below the Jan. 29 low of $3,322 would invalidate the bullish setup. That looks unlikely, though, as the high-volume wedge breakout has confirmed bearish exhaustion signaled by falling volumes on the weekly chart.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a high-volume bullish move Friday that may have opened the doors for a rally above $3,800.

The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization jumped to $3,711 on Feb. 8 – the highest level since Jan. 19 – and ended that day with a 7.8 percent gain; the biggest single-day rise since Dec. 28, according to Bitstamp data.

The rally to three-week highs confirmed an upside break of the falling wedge – a bullish reversal pattern carved out in the last five weeks.

Notably, trading volumes jumped 54.6 percent to $7.73 billion on Friday, according to CoinMarketCap data. That was the first above-$7 billion print since Dec. 24 and the highest reading in nearly three months. Further, the three-day average of 24-hour trading volumes has jumped well above $6 billion for the first time since Dec. 25.

The bullish breakout, therefore, looks legitimate and prices could soon beat the 50-day moving average (MA), which has been serving as a strong resistance since Friday.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $3,595 on Bitstamp, representing an 8.2 percent gain on the January low of $3,322. The 50-day MA is currently located at $3,642.

Daily chart

As seen above, BTC jumped to highs above $3,700 on Friday, confirming a falling wedge breakout, but failed to close above the 50-day MA.

While that average hurdle has capped upside in the last 48 hours, the bulls have little reason to worry, as the wedge breakout is backed by strong volumes.

Further, the 5- and 10-day MAs are trending north, having produced a bullish crossover over the weekend and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is also reporting bullish conditions with an above-50 reading.

As a result, the 50-day MA hurdle, currently at $3,642, could soon make way for $3,800 and possibly to the psychological resistance of $4,000.

6-hour chart

A convincing break above the 50-candle MA on the 6-hour chart also supports the bullish reversal signaled by the falling wedge breakout on the daily chart.

That average had reversed several attempted corrective rallies in the last three weeks. As a result, the bulls may be feeling emboldened, having convincingly beat that stiff hurdle on Friday.

Weekly chart

As seen above, BTC rose by 6.9 percent last week; the biggest weekly rise since mid-December; validating the bearish exhaustion signaled by the slide in volumes in the last ten weeks.

The cryptocurrency also closed last week above the 10-week MA, neutralizing the immediate bearish view. Further, the 5- and 10-week MAs have shed bearish bias (are flatlined).

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

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